this post was submitted on 13 Dec 2023
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If the expected value is positive, then by all means you should play the lottery. Just bear in mind that the utility of money is nonlinear, so Kelly will overextend you - use something like max log-value and rederive.
The only time this happens are either scratch off tickets that are horribly broken or rolling-jackpot lotteries where you can win what other people put in before you.
Even if the math works out that the lottery would be EV+, you still can't know for sure it isn't crooked
Lotteries are generally regulated but corruption isn't unheard of.
But outside regulated state sponsored lotteries - it's safe to assume it's crooked in one way or another.