this post was submitted on 13 Dec 2023
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This may be a cynical view, but even if that does happen, the core ActivityPub protocol will still be intact and at worst be relegated to a small community of tech nerds, which is to say, basically the status quo.
The core of the software will be intact, but the community will be broken - because once Threads pulls the plug (EEE), instead of a stable community you'll have a shrinking one.
Or from another angle, they won't be able to entirely pull the plug. If they try to but users still want to be on mastodon, they can find another way.
That said, I support the immediate defederation with any threads instances.
They can pull it - most users in Threads will be interacting with other Threads users and content. Mastodon will be simply "that ideologically weird corner", and in practice they won't miss it.
For scale: Threads currently has 100M users. The Fediverse as a whole has 1.5M.
And I think that will go both ways. I mean, we all already have the option of joining threads right now to interact with those 100M users but I have a feeling most that are here aren't.
Their joining the fediverse will be more disruptive than their leaving it I think. And that's not even considering the higher costs to anyone running instances, since all that extra volume won't be processed and stored for free (though admittedly I am not familiar with the implementation details of how federated content is handled).
Eternal September-like? It's possible.
13+ million total users: https://fediverse.observer/stats
I'm counting only monthly active users, for both sides. FediDB lists 1.2M for the Fediverse, your link lists 1.7M of them.