this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2024
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Uhm...people would use traditional finances? Banking system ain't going nowhere, and CBDCs make their turn - as dystopian as they are, it's super easy to force them upon people.
What would be wishful thinking is assuming most countries will happily adopt crypto. And besides - that's even more of a dystopian scenario.
What makes you think the FIAT system won't end up in a hyperinflation? And if it doesn't (lol), what makes you think people won't wake up and realize crypto only goes up against FIAT and it's fixed supply? And if we do get CBDCs (which I believe we will, especially since that's probably the only way they can try to save and transition the current system into something that doesn't implode), what makes you think people will just gladly welcome them and not opt out for the alternative (crypto)? I hold strong belief we will live in a hybrid CBDC + crypto world fairly soon.
People had 15 years to "wake up" now, yet they didn't. Partly due to volatility which makes planning near economic future impossible, partly due to scare, but most importantly because they still get their wages in fiat, pay for products in fiat etc., and generally have little left to invest.
The state doesn't have incentive to change the regulations that favor crypto because crypto is generally worse as actual money as opposed to store of value for the reasons described above.
Crypto bros will shill "crypto everywhere soon" narrative every time they can, and I've seen it since at least Mt. Gox era. But until the regulations will be there (and they won't), nothing is gonna happen.
I appreciate your opinion. But why do you think FIAT will survive and how?
I've kinda answered it already - because most governments will keep it alive by never ever going crypto. After all, this will probably be in the best interest of the general public as well, and it doesn't appear that concepts of going full crypto are popular among masses.
I don't think you understand my question. I'm not asking why governments will or will not ditch FIAT for crypto.
I'm asking you what makes you think FIAT will survive and not hyperinflate. And if you think so, why? Like, what will prevent USD let's say from bleeding out in terms of value, or even dying suddenly (by suddenly I mean hyperinflation that kills it in years time after it begins).
That's a job of central banks, and they normally manage it well enough. Sure, crypto offers more reliability on that front by making it impossible to control emission. But at the same time, this means money can't be printed when it would be highly beneficial for the economy, for example when recovering from economic crisis - without extra emission the country will be screwed up real bad. At the end of the day, the fiat emission is agile for good reasons.
I don't think money should ever be printed or burned. I guess we can only agree to disagree.
Alright, let's settle on that.