this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
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I'd argue it had far more to do with it being another one of Larian's RPGs with significantly more production value.
You're underselling how massive the Baldur's Gate name is.
The exact same production in DOS3 wouldn't have near the same runaway hype train.
Baldur's Gate 3 outsold its predecessors by an order of magnitude. I think you're overestimating the cultural clout that a game from 23 years earlier carries. Games just didn't reach anywhere near as many people back then.
What they didn’t mention is that Baldur’s Gate is a Dungeons and Dragons franchise. DnD is magnitudes more popular than it was when BG2 released, to the point of being at worst nearly mainstream. What has sold people on BG3 is being able to play their tabletop game in video game form.
I do think Larian’s pedigree and the Baldur’s Gate name were contributors to its success, but if there was one driving factor it’s the brand recognition of DnD with the marketing of an AA to AAA game.
What percentage of BG3 players do you think are/were tabletop D&D players before they played it? Because I'm betting the percentage is very low.
I'd expect the number to be in the low double digits. 10-20% on the total by now. But in the high double digits for pre-orders / early-access and starting the hype train. Say 70%. I haven't met a tabletop RPG player that hasn't played BG3. Though in the more hardcore circles I know there are those that don't play video games at all...
But I can also safely say that DoS players don't account for the success of BG3 since those games never had mainstream appeal. Brand recognition is for sure a massive factor. Also keep in mind that Baldurs Gate, particularly 2, is considered a must play to understand the evolution of western RPGs. While the PC gaming market was much smaller back then so many people will have played it, read about it or wanted to play it but couldn't get past the aged mechanics and looks since then. Its sales numbers belie its influence and reach.
Finally I'd say a good 50% or more of the total buyers bought in after it was apparent that it was going to be GOTY, so many were talking about it and every critic was singing its praise's, but it wouldn't have gotten there without that brand appeal and the super rich and deep lore which the "power users" (like many critics and early adopters) crave.
I agree with you on the percentages, funny enough, and that's why it doesn't explain the game's success to me. If D&D was responsible, there'd be far more people picking up the enhanced editions of the first two games, Neverwinter Nights, etc., and the MMO would be way more popular. If it was 5e, Solasta would have set the world on fire years earlier. I just don't see it as the largest contributing factor when I've seen plenty of examples of people surprised to learn that the game is tied to Dungeons and Dragons after they've already started playing it.
D:OS2 sold several million copies btw. Maybe that doesn't quite count as mainstream, but it was already a healthy increase from what the first game sold, so they were trending up already.