this post was submitted on 14 May 2024
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What bust? What do you think cloud providers are using for long term storage? SSDs in datacentres are for databases and hot data-sets. Anything that is written for archival purposes or only read infrequently goes to HDDs.
HDDs are still the most cost-effective way of storing data and probably still will be for some time yet.
HDDs won't go away any time soon and that's also exactly what he says but the industry is nowhere close to moving as much product as it did in the past, and the number of companies has been reduced to pretty much three. Technology also isn't going to improve drastically any more while NAND storage only needs that much of a price reduction to match HDDs, currently about 15 vs. 50 Euro/TB. Not spitting distance but it's getting darn close.
It says, after all, "boom and bust" not "rise and fall".
Also, no, tapes are more cost-effective. An LTO-8 tape is about 80 Euros, that's less than seven Euros per TB (uncompressed).
https://toshiba.semicon-storage.com/ap-en/company/news/news-topics/2024/05/storage-20240514-1.html
Great, congratulations. Now figure out how to use the tech without increasing per TB costs and find financing for that with large enough ROI so that the capital that be cares. Seagate already ships 24G HDDs at 20 Euro/TB, whether you want to call a step up to 30 "drastic" I'll leave up to you.
Meanwhile, current NAND chips aren't using EUV. The industry can piggyback off the investment and experience of logic chip manufacturers, HDD manufacturers can't. Synergy and all that.