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this post was submitted on 29 May 2024
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Technology
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Good. The US can make e bikes. The problem is that the tariffs need to be solidified in place for a minimum of 10 years or manufacturers won't invest in the infrastructure to make them. If the tariffs seem likely to go away soon, no one will bother doing it on a large scale. All the Chinese made batteries are garbage, anyhow. There's only a handful of actual quality small lithium batteries and they're samsung, panasonic, Westinghouse, and miel. The ones from china horribly lie about capacity and start failing way too soon. There's a reason all the power tool batteries inside Dewalt and makita and such never use Chinese batts inside. Same for all the high end cordless vacuums. You open up a dyson battery pack, you'll never find chinesium.
Chinese batteries are plenty good enough for e-bikes. For that matter, CATL makes some of the best batteries for electric cars.
Iron and sodium based batteries are coming on the market, and those all e-bikes need.
Yeah. New battery tech is always almost about to come out......15 years and waiting.
It does come out. All the time. 5-8% per year, compounding.
There's a toxic positivity in how the news presents battery tech advances that leads people to think it's never coming. I'm not talking about stuff that's in a lab that may or may not be practical for mass production. I'm talking about stuff starting to come out of factories today.
Some minor changes here and there, but the underlying makeup of the batteries and their shortcomings have been largely the same. Lithium and issues with dendrites that cause them to go bad/lose capacity after around 2,500 complete charge cycles. Most of the improvements have consisted of pulse charging different cells at a time in large batteries and trying to always keep the batteries in the 30% to 80% capacity range to extend the lifespan. Batteries last longer if you put one big enough in a vehicle to go 400 miles, but only allow for a 200 mile range.
5-8% per year is a doubling every 9-15 years. This is not a small change. That means we've doubled at least once since the first Tesla Roadster.
We haven't doubled at all over the past 15 years, though. That's completely false. Not in capacity or cycles.
They have doubled in capacity: https://rockymntstage.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/slide-2-battery-charts.png