Linux

I'm reminded of a video I saw of a woman talking about her dating prospects using M&Ms. She poured a bunch on the table as a metaphor for her dating pool, and slid away M&Ms as she ruled the people they represent out. "8 million people in the city. But half are women slides half of the M&Ms away of the remaining 4 million men, 20% are under 25, slides more M&Ms away" until she got to a point where she had one candy left, and then she shattered it with a meat tenderizer and continued sliding pieces of it away.

You can do that for potential adoptees of Linux, because there are a bunch of filters in series you have to pass through before successfully adopting Linux.

8 billion people on the planet.

Subtract the Sentinelese and Amish and North Koreans and everyone else who just outright doesn't have access to computers. Nothing we can really do about them and in some cases it would be unethical to try.

Now subtract out the people who only use a mobile device like a cell phone or tablet, which are locked to their OSes. Android or iOS is as much a part of the hardware as a microwave oven's firmware is to them. Linux on mobile devices (excluding Android) is in a severely rough state, there's basically no hardware and software combo that is ready for daily driving.

Now subtract out the people who do use a PC or other device, that won't ever install an operating system on a computer themselves. You'll get some of these folks by selling computers with Linux installed in stores and such, though I think you'll have to address a few other points later. I think SteamOS is demonstrating this.

Now subtract the people who might install Linux themselves, say PC builders who would have to install an OS anyway, but bounce off the process of choosing a distro and then installing. The big distributors like Canonical and Fedora tend toward marketing wankshit instead of human language. You can't tell their goddamn websites "I just want the normal end-user desktop version with KDE please." Does "Core" mean our main, central product, or the IoT embedded system version? You kind of have to know Fedora calls their Gnome edition "Workstation" and if you want "normal Fedora but with KDE" that's a "Spin." Then you get the Trendy Fork Of The Month, things like Bazzite and Nobara that pretty much are Fedora or Ubuntu with a theme applied, maybe some actual features in the OS, but often just a redone onboarding process, like I think it's Bazzite that offers a configurator on their website that lets you pick your desktop and such. Defuckulating the onboarding process of major distros might allow us to do away with the Trendy Fork Of The Month.

Now subtract the folks who get a Linux machine up and running and then bounce off of the unfamiliar UI. I'm pretty sure this is Gnome's fault more often than not, Gnome is deliberately hostile to both distro maintainers and end users to the point there are now four DEs that are "We can't do this anymore" forks of Gnome: MATE, Cinnamon, Unity and Cosmic. You'd probably see more people stick with Linux if it was less easy to stumble dick first into Gnome.

Now subtract the people who got this far and then said "My CAD/art/music/office/finance/whatever software doesn't run on this." and had to switch back. In a lot of cases, software like that exists in the FOSS ecosystem but it's significantly inferior, like FreeCAD or GIMP. These are often kept in a deliberately shitty state because some opinionated programmer likes how the code they wrote in 2004 looks in their IDE, so open software continues to be unadoptable and people continue to pay subscriptions to the Captain Planet villains in charge of Microsoft, Apple, Google and Adobe.

I feel like we've been having the same conversation for 20 years. Meanwhile the linux family of operating systems is now the most widely deployed in the world.

Either:

1. A smarter and wiser population able to discern and care enough that they're being cucked by Microsoft, overcoming the inertia to install Linux.
2. Linux invents a game/feature that is so goddamn appealing that everyone wants in on the action.
3. Preinstallation.

I think the gap between what the average Linux user thinks is ease of use and what the average non Linux user thinks is ease of use is probably much larger and many devs seem to understand.

I think it would be beneficial to have a completely idiot proof installer that doesn't ask you about partitions or formatting or basically anything just point it towards a drive and it will set up a default installation.

More GUI based means of doing basic stuff. A casual who wants to access some photos from his laptop does not want to figure out how to manually configure samba shares by editing config files in their terminal based text editor.

I think codecs are a much bigger pain in the ass than is ideal. As I understand that there are legal reasons for this but the first time some casual goes to play a video and gets an error message their first thought may not be "let me search Google and figure out what this error message means" their first thought maybe "Linux sucks and can't play videos".

The permission structure that makes Linux so secure makes it a little annoying for casuals. For example, you actively and intentionally go to the default software store, navigate to the updates tab, update a package you've already installed and clearly want, and do so from the official OS repository... This requires that you enter your password to protect you from what exactly? It's not a big deal it takes one second to type my password, but how would you explain this to a casual in a way that makes sense? Your OS is protecting you from potentially rogue acts of official patches to your default text editor.

I think the folder structures are pretty big challenge for converts. On Windows you can find most of the files associated with any given program in your program files folder. On Mac there's an applications folder. On Linux... it's somewhere, don't worry about it. That's not really a fixable one it just is what it is.

GLIBC

I think the big thing that everyone is missing here is that schools and workplaces need to push it into people's lives. For that to happen Linux (or at least one of its distros backed by a hardware distributor) needs to develop killer features for those markets and successfully sell to them in large enough numbers that the average computer user - who does not care what their OS is because they only use it for email and work - will make sure that their at-home setup is compatible with their work machine.

That moment is when market forces will take over and drive real growth in desktop Linux, rather than the tiny little bumps we've seen the past few years thanks to the Steam Deck coming out and MS pissing its users off.

This is how Apple built its marketshare against the Microsoft domination of the 90s. For a long time it was the go-to "school computer", and then those kids grew up and now a huge piece of the tech industry and culture is more or less Apple only. It's unclear if this process can be repeated, since Apple's marketshare was carved out during a time of massive growth in the industry that is unlikely to repeat, but I wouldn't say it's impossible if the right conditions reveal themselves.

I will say that it is highly unlikely that the people here would like the change if it happens - imagine Google slinging fully locked down "linux" machines en masse and everybody else needing to download their kernel fork that's loaded with spyware ("for security reasons") in order to connect to Google Teams for work. Maybe I'm being pessimistic but I just don't see mass adoption of a new OS happening without some kind of fuckery like this that renders the version of Linux that gets mass adopted unrecognizable from the version we're all using now.

The other option is state intervention, as with NeoKylin in China, although the Chinese government seems to be limiting themselves to just government computers with that distro.

Workplace is a huge conveyor of technology, and capitalism loves capitalism. Public sector has a much higher Linux adoption rate

I think it is its image of lack of stability and features; I know there are out there stable distros and almost every well known program has a Linux version, but the image that Linux has had through the years is not that. If Linux overcomes this and gets a better reputation, it would be a great weight lifted for the road ahead of the OS. I hope Proton breaks through the mainstream public and Linux gets more exposed and known out there

I'd agree with the: come preinstalled. Most people buy a device and never change the operating system. So it needs to be the preinstalled operating system on the average computer or laptop, wherever people buy those.

(And mind that Linux completely dominates the market on servers. So technically, a lot of people use Linux in a way... Just not on desktop computers.)

There needs to a single “App Store” where regular people can find free and paid apps that will work on all distros.

Basically, we need Steam for non-gamers.

There's quite a lot needed from peripheral manufacturers, regarding drivers and utilities. You still can't, for example, just buy any new printer or scanner - you have to check compatibility first.

Being able to do everything a "normie" would do without the need to use a terminal.

And a way for companies to get flatpak as an alternative, i remember a friend of mine who tried to use 'buntu budgie for a while and he needed a software for cartographic stuff.

We got lucky the company of said software (and yes, it needed to be THAT specific software to avoid compat' issues, so no free alternatives were viable even if they were available) used to provide a .deb package, we got forced to change a lot of sys native binaries to make it work and ended up just breaking a lot of other stuff to do so. Flatpaks (fuck snaps) need to be the default option to be available across systems without caring about distros, so anyone can run it on "mandragora linux" if they want to

They need to be able to buy accessory products that do more harm than good. It’s can’t be a proper alternative to windows without CCleaner support!