this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2024
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Yup, an advantage in this industry doesn't last forever, and a lead in a particular generation doesn't necessarily translate to the next paradigm.
Canon wants to challenge ASML and get back in the lithography game, with a tooling shift they've been working on for 10 years. The Japanese "startup" Rapidus wants to get into the foundry game by starting with 2nm, and they've got the backing of pretty much the entirety of the Japanese electronics industry.
TSMC is holding onto finFET a little bit longer than Samsung and Intel, as those two switch to gate all around FETs (GAAFETS). Which makes sense, because those two never got to the point where they could compete with TSMC on finFETs, so they're eager to move onto the next thing a bit earlier while TSMC squeezes out the last bit of profit from their established advantage.
Nothing lasts forever, and the future is always uncertain. The past history of the semiconductor industry is a constant reminder of that.
True, but with AMD the problem was that they had serious deficits and were near bankruptcy.
And these technologies are getting more an more expensive. The latest tapeout Apple did for M3, is estimated to have cost $1 billion. That's for tapeout alone!!!
We are at a point where this technology is so prohibitively expensive, that only the biggest global players can play.
The thing is, if Intel doesn't actually get 18A and beyond competitive, it might be on a death spiral towards bankruptcy as well. Yes, they've got a ton of cash on hand and several very profitable business lines, but that won't last forever, and they need plans to turn profits in the future, too.
Yes that's true, Intel has been behind for almost 8 years, but they've had massive ressources to make a comeback, A luxury AMD never had.
AMD was kept out of the market so they barely made money even when they were clearly ahead.
And only now after 8 years Intel is having a fiscal year deficit. That's not comparable to the situation AMD was in when they made their comeback.
But I agree that unless Intel succeed on 18A, things are not looking good. But there's some way yet until they are in a similar situation to where AMD was in 2016 when Ryzen was revealed.