this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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BlueSky is really just Twitter pretending to be Mastodon, but that's a minor issue compared to the problems associated with platforms like "X" and TikTok today.
What matters most right now is killing off Twitter and breaking up the dominance of any one platform on social media. I really don't care where people go as long as they get the fuck off of Twitter and TikTok. Mastodon and open platforms will eventually win out in a divided social media ecosystem anyway, in my opinion. Divide and conquer.
No they won't, Reddit killed Internet Forums, Threads has over 200 million active monthly users, and BlueSky already has double the number of users of Mastadon and is adding 10 new ones PER SECOND . Mastadon will be entirely irrelevant by the end of Q1 2025.
What we're watching right now is the exact same fight that the chat platforms had back in the early 2000s. AOL chat vs IRC vs Yahoo Chat vs Microsoft Messenger. That was temporarily addressed by using multi-service clients like Trillian...and then Facebook rolled in and squashed them all. BTW there are several multi-platform clients out there right now that will allow you to interact with Xitter, Threads, BlueSky, and Mastadon simultaneously just like the Trillian of old.
I've been around the Internet since the BBS days and I can't think of a single time where a de-centralized platform has out competed a centralized platform with "normal" users.
I'm right there with you. I'd love to see the dream of the decentralized media return, but it's long-dead. The "Normal" user doesn't give a fuck about the benefits and even the moderate barrier to entry over some centralized platform is enough to keep them away.
Tech-minded people seem to often forget that even the most simplistic choices like "Choose an instance" is a big deal for people. The platform that's the most familiar, and easiest to use is going to be the one that wins, and, right now, that looks like it's Bluesky.
It's not even "chose an instance". This is what my journey has been:
Now try to get your non tech friends on board.