this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2025
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I can think of only two ways that we don't reach AGI eventually.
General intelligence is substrate dependent, meaning that it's inherently tied to biological wetware and cannot be replicated in silicon.
We destroy ourselves before we get there.
Other than that, we'll keep incrementally improving our technology and we'll get there eventually. Might take us 5 years or 200 but it's coming.
Well it could also just depend on some mechanism that we haven't discovered yet. Even if we could technically reproduce it, we don't understand it and haven't managed to just stumble into it and may not for a very long time.