this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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What people should be worried about is Meta (or anyone) trying to extend the AP protocol with proprietary stuff or trying to create fake regulations around their own "standards."
You see this today with Gmail, where even though you can host your own email server, most major services (like gmail) will autoblock you as a spammer. Even though email is an open federated protocol, it's become captured both by big business and failures in the protocol (to prevent spam and abuse).
AP and the fediverse are maybe more resilient than that. And existing fediverse servers seem to be somewhat diverse and figuring out ways to pay for hosting. That will be the biggest danger is that Threads becomes a default choice due to: low/no cost to join, good uptime, and lots of people you know.
But I think the rest of the fediverse will be around for a long time yet, it's only really just started to take off!