this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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Wait and see is not ignoring anything though, and have not read a single argument against it. Defederation can happen at any time for any reason in the future, why would you preemptively exclude a potential for ActivityPub to get major recognition?
I'm not excluding the possibility an EEE attempt, and meta's track record definitely shows they will try. But people using ActivityPub right now won't stop because a company forked it into their own standard, we are here specifically for the exact opposite. Meta literally has zero influence on any of us, if anything it's the exact opposite.
Also "learning from history" is a weak argument, every server admin as the possibility to defederate at any moment. When even the slightest misstep is placed, everyone defederates and Meta will live in their own little federated world, boo fucking hoo.
Here you have some arguments then:
Federating with a 10x larger entity that has a ton of very well known names on their list is going to dwarf anything that the fediverse so far has to offer. I‘m not saying in quality but definitely in quantity.
The argument is sound because its the exact same that happens with heroin. Your brain gets flooded with dopamine, you feel as happy as you have never felt in your life and likely will never feel again. The withdrawal symptoms are reported to be cruel. The reason is that „healthy“ amounts of dopamine just dont cut it anymore.
The same happens to people quitting big corpo „social“ media. I felt it and I have read of dozens who felt it as well (Obviously not as hard as heroin but the same mechanic). Now I‘m off the proverbial needle and meta federating is just going to bring us back to old habits. Endless, partly divisive content, potential for pushing ads with the posts and using our reactions for profiling.
Like the frog in the kettle we wont get dystopia tomorrow but like disney pushing their prices 50%, we get it eventually, bit by bit.
If meta ever defederates or limits the capabilities of fediverse instances, thousands of (again) hooked addicts will flock back to them. It’s literally obvious if you have any experience with addiction.
Also, we’ve had this discussion with covid, with climate change, with lgbtq rights, abortion… can we maybe start seeing the pattern here? Its always „not that bad“ while some are abusing and exploiting others and those who call it out have the „woke virus“ and are called fearmongers.
Fearmongering is if the media or the government does it, not people who are actually there using the stuff and suffering under things. That is called asking others for help/to understand.
You forgot profit.
If Meta/threads sees a way to cram ads into their instance(s), they will. If they offer money to others to put ads on their instances, they will. If they make rules or other demands of those making money - like no defederating from Meta/Threads, or requiring federating with other corporate instances, they will. On top of that, you’re going to get people drawn into the fediverse, like influencers, political spammers, more bots, and anyone else that follows that type of social media. Coders will start writing corporate-friendly instance code that will allow individuals (like influencers) to spin up profitable instances quickly that tie right into the corporateverse.
EEE will happen. We can argue about defederating from these corporate instances, but it’s going to be a running retreat.
Maybe hyperbolic. Maybe not. If, of course, if meta/threads finds the fediverse profitable.
So then explain to me, how exactly does this impact you? What about you block the meta instance yourself? You will not see any threads content and will continue to use lemmy/ActivityPub in literally the exact same way.
If corporations get their hooks into the fediverse it will be like putting out fires. Plenty of people out there willing to sacrifice what the fediverse is for a few bucks. I don't want Threads/Meta to even get a toehold, that shit's poison.
Do you know how federation works? Because if you did you'd know that 'corportions get their hooks into the fediverse' does not mean anything. Defederation and forking of the source code is a click away, the reason lemmy exists is to move away from corporations. Contradicting that would just spawn a new lemmy federation.
Did you read what I wrote? Are you just being stubborn about human nature? Don't insult me by implying I don't understand this stuff at least at the surface level. All I'm painting is a potential future, and that future is depended on corporations finding the fediverse worth the effort. If they don't, NBD. If they do, I can assure you they will grind away at what the fediverse is until it's shaped like what they want, federation be damned. Like I said, maybe you can carve out a corpo-free area, but that depends on the instance operators wanting to put out the effort and money while corps are potentially waving cash in their direction. Humans are shortsighted and greedy.
Corporations will try ofcourse that's what they do, but denying meta federation from the getgo goes against the philosophy of federation. The points you're making NEED to be made, we NEED to observe how meta handles it and how all services are affected. We can decide from there whether your doom scenario holds any merrit whatsoever.