this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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AI was a promise more than anything. When ChatGPT came out, all the AI companies and startups promised exponential improvements that will chaaangeee the woooooorrlllddd
Two years later it's becoming insanely clear they hit a wall and there isn't going to be much change unless someone makes a miraculous discovery. All of that money was dumped in to just make bigger models that are 0.1% better than the last one. I'm honestly surprised the bubble hasn't popped yet, it's obvious we're going nowhere with this.
You should all see the story about the invention blue LEDs. No one believed that it could work except some japanese guy (Shuji Nakamura) who kept working on it despite his company telling him to stop. No one believed it could ever be solved despite being so close. He solved it and the rewards were astronomical.
This could very well be another case of being so close to a breakthrough. Two years since GPT-3 came out is nothing. If you were paying any sort of attention you would see there are promising papers coming out almost every week. It's clear there is a lot we don't know about training neural nets effectively. Our own brains are the proof of that.
I mean if you ignore all the papers that point out how dubious the gen AI benchmarks are, then it is very impressive.