this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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Which means they're in a bubble because Nvidia's total assets (85B$) value is less than half of Intel's (205B$). I refuse to believe that the "potential for growth" of Nvidia is worth anywhere close to 120B$ in actual value even in the next 5 years. I see only two things here: either Intel is undervalued, or Nvidia is overvalued. I think it's both. When that bubble bursts it's going to hit very hard for a lot of people because it's the same thing as the other big tech companies (apple google meta etc) are all valued based on predictions and magic when the companies that have an actual intrinsic value are worth less
Seems the strategy is clear mega short nvidia to buy super leveraged intel and hope you can stay solvent longer than the market is irrationnal
I agree this is an obvious market failure because finance bros have become detached from reality even more than usual.
AI boom is starting to smell like DOT COM 2.0.
We have not seen that much improvement since gpt4, mostly cost reduction and UI convenience.
Current AI hype is not cashable, and I say that as an enthusiast who is building 15 kilowatt inference cluster in his living room.
We already have the major improvements already and we are nowhere close to done disgesting then.
Strategy unclear, I'll still Bogle HODL.