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Publishers face 20% game revenue reduction if Denuvo DRM is cracked quickly, according to new study
(www.tomshardware.com)
this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2024
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I'm not going to purchase the document to find out, and the abstract doesn't really cover it, but I'm curious what the methodology was here. I seriously doubt that piracy is that prevalent. It's possible that people are upset with certain companies and aim to pirate their games, and the fact that those companies are the same ones that use Denuvo is happenstance. It's also possible that they're using total downloads of pirated copies vs. total sales as their statistic, which is misleading, because I'd wager the majority of folks who pirate the game would not have purchased it if it wasn't available to download for free.
I'd also be curious if the price of the game was a factor; I imagine more people are looking to pirate a game priced at $70 than one priced at $40, for example.
Really, there's too many factors to consider here and I don't think there's a reasonable way to say how many folks who pirated a given game actually would have purchased it.
Not many companies release this number, the only one I remember is of World of Goo, which is pretty old now. They mentioned that there was about 90% piracy rate for their game.
How would they even know?
You can get a floor of an estimate if people don't remove stuff that phones home.
Only if the part phoning home does send some sort of unique id.
Source IP.
Between NAT, CGNAT and the same instance checking in more than once that is not a very reliable way to count anything.
You asked how they could tell and I'm giving a best guess. I'm not saying it's a perfect approach.