The folks who are going to use Linux for their desktops already are. The folks who never were, never have.
Linux
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Linux is a family of open source Unix-like operating systems based on the Linux kernel, an operating system kernel first released on September 17, 1991 by Linus Torvalds. Linux is typically packaged in a Linux distribution (or distro for short).
Distributions include the Linux kernel and supporting system software and libraries, many of which are provided by the GNU Project. Many Linux distributions use the word "Linux" in their name, but the Free Software Foundation uses the name GNU/Linux to emphasize the importance of GNU software, causing some controversy.
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On the consumer front, I think the wild card is gamers. There are many that care more about their games than their desktop.
If people come for the gaming and stay for the desktop, we may see a real surge in Linux desktop share.
More and more of what we use is cross-platform as well. There are fewer and fewer apps tying us to one desktop or the other.
It is getting easier to move. The question is why to move. I think gaming could be the driver.