Linux

MS already doesn't have a monopoly in any meaningful sense anymore.

• https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202507 - in early 2009, almost 95% of web usage was from Windows, by now it is at around 28%, no longer even the most popular OS, which is now Android around 42%
• https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-200901-202507 - even looking only at the desktop and ignoring the shift to mobile devices, Windows fell from ~95% to ~72% during the same time period, mostly losing to macOS but more recently also Linux

Windows isn't the main way Microsoft makes money anymore anyway...

The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.

Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like.. well, work.

Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.

PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more...

I feel it's a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses.. so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.

Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)... they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps... so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the "best" way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.

It's mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.

Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.

They will adapt.

Embrace, extend, extinguish. They will become Linux.

In all seriousness, if you look into how windows manages its security now, it leverages virtualization to essentially run windows inside of a hypervisor. At some point in the future, the legacy windows kernel is going to just be another virtual machine running side by side with Linux and the hypervisor will probably run their HyperV tech on top of a Linux (compatible) kernel.

Then they will say that you need their version of Linux to run specific hardware and software.

EEE

I'm going to go with "nothing". They blend their numbers but I'd be willing to bet the amount of money they make selling direct licenses is tiny. (Tiny at their scale, I'd take it any day.) The whole OEM business isn't even huge to them. If they start losing the enterprise market, then I'm sure they would throw down, but you and everyone you know installing Linux would be fine. Have you noticed how easy it is to steal windows and how there seem to be very few repercussions? That says volumes about what they think the revenue potential of that market is..

They are already lobbying for stupid shit, and coordinating deals with manufacturers.

Adapt and fight. Linux is the dominant OS for everything, so Windows started to support it (wsl) so they don't loose developers. Secure boot worked as a moat for a while and the MS monopoly on OS keys is still an obstacle. Linux works better on ARM than Windows, so obviously Qualcom Laptops have a locked down bootloader. They will continue to lock themselfes into the future with money and development resources.

Damnit Jim I'm a doctor, not an actor

Hear me out on this one "Microsoft Linux"

pays even more to hardware manufacturers to add windows by default, and make drivers windows only.

Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.

Exactly what they're doing right now. What cable companies did. What every dominant business does when something better starts to eat their lunch.

Become increasingly abusive and scummy towards the customers who are left, because they're either too deeply ingrained, spineless or lazy to change and they've already self-selected.

Linux has been becoming a "serious threat" for 20+ years now. I'll wait.

Don't get me wrong I like Linux a lot. But if you step back and look objectively, it has a lot of issues trying to grow outside the hobby/enthusiast community for the desktop.

Work with hardware and software vendors to break linux compatibility.

Secure boot and anti-cheat.

Microsoft already lost the home OS battle when people switch their main devices to smartphones with iOS or Android.