this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2025
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112
Looking more like insider trading scam than AI bubble: Open AI raises commitments/partnerships to 36GW with new 10gw Broadcom deal (www.cnbc.com)
submitted 1 day ago by humanspiral@lemmy.ca to c/technology@lemmy.world
5 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

An AI bubble requires actual AI capabilities to be built and to fail to be called that. A stock trading scam on AI stocks is just a stock trading scam.

36GW is 36 times current US corporate owned AI datacenter capacity. All of it made at TSMC which runs full tilt as it is. TSMC's current plans is to 2x (over 3nm today) 2nm node by 2028. 4x by 2031 would still mean 2038ish to satisfy just OpenAI demand.

A big problem with having so many partners that OpenAI has no actual money to pay, is that no one has the confidence to place big TSMC capacity unless they are sure OpenAI actually buy from them, with money they get on time to buy from them. There are definitely consumer AI/gaming capabilities that can have more certain demand than the datacenter impossibilities.

Each additional announcement makes the joke more impossible to believe. CISCO did not do this during 1999 bubble. People just assumed its growth would continue.

Fine, OpenAI revenue growth may reach 3x at end of this year. At losses equal to its revenue number in 2024. OpenAI already has the most expensive models.

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[–] just_another_person@lemmy.world 18 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

This is absolutely insane. It's so top heavy there is no way this will do anything but spectacularly fail, and take the entire economy with it.

[–] FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world 13 points 1 day ago

Oh yeah.

Knowing that it's just seven companies propping up the US economy, and the private ones don't have to publicly report if they just lost half a trillion dollars, it gives one pause. I'm definitely reevaluating if and when I want to move my investments to cash.

[–] xia@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I guess AI is best measured by how much power it consumes... ?

[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 day ago

that is how OpenAI measures all of its deals. the GPU providers DGAF about that measure, and "real deals" will be for x number of gpu's instead. OpenAI PR make stonk go up, is vagueness everyone else seems to enjoy. It makes 0 sense in any deals these companies can make. It just scares the rest of us for how much the power bill go brrrr.

[–] KnitWit@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

Only tangible thing it produces.