I understand your frustration. And I agree that choice is an impediment to adoption.
That said, I am not that comment deserved your reply.
As far as I can tell, the OP was only offering one option—Debian. So your concern does not apply there.
And the next comment did not suggest having more options or adding confusing choices either. I think they were ok with offering just one distro. They just wanted to know why the single recommendation was not Mint.
He was not asking a new user why they chose Debian. He was asking the Linux expert why he chose Debian over Mint. Your comment does not seem to apply.
There is nothing wrong with Debian so I certainly think it is an acceptable choice. That said, Mint probably would offer a less jarring transition than Debian for Windows users. Mint defaults to Cinnamon (very Windows like). Debian defaults to GNOME (a less familiar desktop metaphor). Mint also comes with just a few extra tools and touches that can keep new users off the command line (unless they want to go there).
And if you like Debian, LMDE gives you Debian with the Mint GUI and tools.
Honestly, it seems like a fair question.
If you are only going to give them one option, why not one more likely to work for them? Them being everyday Windows users.
And all that said…I do agree that keeping it simple is the most important thing and offering a single recommendation is the right strategy regardless of which distro you choose to recommend.
Microsoft will for sure benefit here.
Many users, especially businesses, will simply upgrade.
Some will pay for the ESU.
Some will sign up for cloud backups.
All these benefit Microsoft.
Some fairly small number will work around Microsoft’s plan by upgrading Windows 11 where they are not supposed to or finding a way to get the updates for free.
Sure, probably the biggest fraction of users will probably do nothing. But they were already doing nothing for Microsoft so nothing changes in this case. Of anything, the load in Microsoft servers goes down a bit.
So ya, Microsoft has little incentive not to charge ahead.