lukewarm_ozone

Say for the example you have a system where a monotheistic god sometimes alters reality when prayed to by a devout follower. There are no measurable or manipulatable components, as the god can respond entirely differently tomorrow.

That's still nowhere near unexplainable enough to be impossible to study. You've described the god's behaviour as "sometimes alters reality when prayed to by a devout follower" - if it's consistent enough for this statement to make sense, that's already a lot to study. Is there a correlation between particular prayers and miracles? Are particular mental states helpful? Do various traits make someone more or less likely to produce a miracle? Are there drugs that affect it? What are the limits to a miracle? Are there patterns in the time intervals between miracles? And so on, and so forth. A world with such a magic system, if you want it to be realistic, should have had an entire history of people studying these and many other things.

And honestly, the mystery of an unexplainable magic system is often what makes it magic.

Eh. It's sometimes fun to read stories like that (one better have fun, since most stories are like that!), but they're... stories about worlds where there isn't a single human with common sense or intelligence. Not just in the story itself, but in the world's entire history, because the author didn't realise that "people trying to seriously explore the laws of their world" is a thing that necessarily happens in realistic worlds, much like it happens in ours.

If magic interferes and influences electricity, which means it can be measured, analyzed and manipulated

...that would also be true if it didn't interact with electricity.

There are minor feature differences there's also a convenience factor: youtube-dl people for some reason stopped doing releases, so you can't get a fresh version from pypi (only installing from github or their site). Yt-dlp is on pypi, including nightly builds.

Works much better with fzf, but even just default bash it's useful.

"I've seen it first-hand" isn't significant evidence because the frequency illusion effect is a thing. If you see dozens of ads a day and ignore them unless you notice them matching something you talked about, you'll end up thinking ads can track what you talk about whether or not it's true.

There seems to be something wrong with the image quality. Here, I improved it for y'all:

Oh, the lab leak/zoonosis debate is a good thought, but I don't think it counts as a conspiracy - if I search for news articles from before 2022 mentioning it, I immediately find, say, this BBC article from 2020 that treats lab leak seriously, so it was a mainstream-ish idea quite early on. This seems to match with my own memories, I've seen lab leak being discussed in 2022 and I think even earlier.

In general, though, there's probably some good COVID-related example, even if I can't think of one immediately (I think it's pretty disingenuous how media demonized every prospective COVID drug, especially ivermectin - but they did turn out to be ineffective against the virus itself, and I don't think there were any conspiracies about the drugs that ended up actually working, like Paxlovid).

Thanks, that's a nice askreddit thread. A lot of these have the same problem though, which is that I have trouble believing (and have no idea how to find evidence, since they were well pre-internet) that these were conspiracy theories before they were revealed.

(I note now that I didn't actually mention, in my comment, that by "was a conspiracy theory" I don't just mean "sounds crazy" but rather "sounded crazy and there were actually people saying it". I'm not interested in every insane thing secret agencies did*, I'm interested in stuff people successfully predicted.)

*well, I am, but it's not what the question is about

I'm not sure what you mean. Arresting random intelligentsia is not a "well reasoned response" to foreign interference. And it's also unrelated to the topic - I'm asking about conspiracy theories that were later validated, and "foreign governments are trying to sabotage us", in Stalinist USSR, wasn't a conspiracy theory - if anything it was the party line.

Sure, the fact the US government spies on every single citizen without warrant or cause.

Ah, that's true, I totally forgot about Snowden. Technically I don't think I've heard of there being a conspiracy about it before 2013, but it's a good example.

Stalin wasn’t crazy nor did he overreact with his actions against ‘enemies if the state’

Very questionable phrasing (I have some Soviet ancestors who spent years felling forests for the crime of being too educated and teaching things that didn't quite align with the party line; that's not an 'overreaction' to anything, but just tyranny), but anyway, this doesn't count - it was definitely not considered a conspiracy theory in the Soviet Union to think that foreign states were doing espionage there.

Are there any examples of something that was a conspiracy theory being validated by confidential documents later? I can't think of any, even though secret agencies sure did do a lot of crazy stuff.

No linux user ever leaves home without their... piss minigun??