an llm works the same way! Once it's trained,none of what you said applies anymore. The same model can respond differently with the same inputs specifically because after the llm does its job, sometimes we intentionally don't pick the most likely token, but choose a different one instead. RANDOMLY. Set the temperature to 0 and it will always reply with the same answer. And llms also have a fixed order state transition. Just because you only typed one word doesn't mean that that token is not preceded by n-1 null tokens. The llm always receives the same number of tokens. It cannot work with an arbitrary number of tokens.
all relevant information "remains in the prompt" only until it slides out of the context window, just like any markov chain.
the probabilities are also fixed after training. You seem to be conflating running the llm with different input to the model somehow adapting. The new context goes into the same fixed model. And yes, it can be reduced to fixed transition logic, you just need to have all possible token combinations in the table. This is obviously intractable due to space issues, so we came up with a lossy compression scheme for it. The table itself is learned once, then it's fixed. The training goes into generating a huge markov chain. Just because the table is learned from data, doesn't change what it actually is.