this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2024
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China's too smart to 'invade' Taiwan. There will be no tanks and helicopters invading. China / CCP may be assholes but they are also fucking smart.
Look at Hong Kong. There were no tanks or helicopters. Just steadily increasing political control. More or less the entirety of HK protested for weeks/months. It did fuck all.
That will be what happens with Taiwan. It won't be an invasion. It will be a gradual slide.
Right now, USA officially supports the 'One China' policy to appease China even though we want Taiwan to be independent. It's let us keep huge trade with China (which the Chinese also want/need) while we depend (and NEED) Taiwan for a lot of tech manufacturing especially computer chips.
Thing is, China has no desire to be dependent on us. They want us dependent on them for manufacturing, but don't want to need that business. That's why China is doing aggressive R&D on pretty much every high tech area they depend on the West for, trying to ensure that everything China needs can be made in China from Chinese tech. To do that they need to be able to design and manufacture the latest computer chips, which they currently can't. But they're pouring billions into figuring it out.
If China takes over Taiwan, either openly or covertly, they get TSMC. And that gives them all the chipmaking tech they need.
Don't expect tanks. Expect state sponsored industrial espionage at TSMC and their own suppliers. Then expect Chinese chipmakers to flood the market with top-line or near-top-line hardware at low prices, which US won't embargo and thus we'll get even more dependent on China.
Lol the biggest reason you're wrong to make that comparison is that Hong Kong was never its won country. Hong Kong was a British colony and then a Chinese special administrative region (SAR) given a degree of administrative autonomy by the Chinese government voluntarily as part of a treaty with the British. The treaty expired and then China decided to change the rules for Hong Kong.
Taiwan meanwhile was the territory that the Republic of China (RoC aka Nationalist China) held on to when it lost the Chinese Civil War against the People's Republic of China (PRC aka Communist China) who now control the mainland. The PRC never controlled Taiwan and the RoC government which rules there does not answer to the PRC nor has it ever. The PRC and it's Communist Partt can claim that Taiwan is a rogue province all they want but that's a lie. Taiwan is not theirs it was and still is under the government of the ROC even if the ROC has lost the rest of its territory to the PRC since the Civil War and World War 2.
Hong Kong's city government allowed China to take more direct control because it always answered to China since the British gave it to China. Meanwhile the ROC government in Taiwan has never answered to the PRC and it never will. Opposing the PRC is literally one of the main goals of that government and country and I don't think there are any major politicians there who want to join the PRC willingly nor would amy such politician be popular there.
Long story short the ROC (Taiwan) and Hong Kong are not even remotely comparable and the former won't just accept any attempted takeover by the communists.