this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2025
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There's absolutely no doubt that lower-end models are going to keep improving and that inference will keep getting cheaper. It won't be on a Raspberry but my money's with you. In 6 years you'll be able to buy some cheap-ish specialized hardware to run open models on and they're gonna be at least as capable as today's frontier models while burning a fraction of the energy.
In fact i wouldn't be surprised if frontier models were somehow overtaken by vastly cheaper models in the long run. The whole "trillion parameter count" paradigm feels very hacky and ripe for radical simplification. And wouldn't it be hilarious ? All those suckers spending billions building a moat only to see it swept under their feet.