this post was submitted on 21 May 2024
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If the PRC somehow successfully takes Taiwan, but in doing so, utterly destroys the vast majority of the world’s cutting edge chip foundry lines for cpu + gpu + ram + nvme, it’s a pretty safe bet that the rest of the world will be absolutely fucking livid with China at the very least, because it would cause EVERYONE’S economy to crash.
The point is not for people to be angry at china. The point is advertising that you're gonna blow up the world economy if something happens to you, therefore the world has a huge incentive to defend them against china, before they blow up their fabs.
That was the underlying implication of my comment. Of course nobody wants any of these threats to be carried out. But they’re useless as geopolitical constraints unless the threat is credible.
If the effect will really be as bad, that will make being livid with China simply irrelevant.
I like Taiwan more than I like PRC.
Still, such a world (after a few decades of dystopian chaos) would definitely have interesting changes.
China is mainly concerned with breaking out of the first island chain. Foreign Taiwan is basically a knife held on their throath. The fallout on the day after is worth it to them.
An independent Taiwan is nothing of the sort.
The PRC could have adopted a much more diplomatic and friendly approach - think EU-esque. Instead of this dipshit woLf wArRioR crap, the PRC could have taken the more mature and measured approach, and worked towards making a strong industrial, geopolitical, and economic alliance with Taiwan.
Hell, if they just accepted that the slow and steady approach was probably going to work better than the “I’m going to have a tantrum” approach in general, they’d probably be doing way better in a whole slew of areas. They could have essentially created a de facto alliance with Taiwan over shared culture, language, and history… but no, Xi wants to prove how big his dick is I guess.
I'd say both sides gain more from the rest of the world with this conflict. China still gets Taiwanese-produced chips and Chinese companies work with Taiwanese companies. Taiwan gets to resist integration into PRC, which would eventually happen with such an alliance. China gets to threaten the rest of the world with a crisis.
Western support for Taiwan, and establishing indispensable parts of its supply lines there, is mainly about maintaining a strategically important chokehold on China's maritime traffic and keep their imperial ambitiins bottled up. The Taiwanese cheap labour was just a little cherry on too.
Bold of you to assume that everyone's economy isn't already crashing.
You're watching too much political crap news (fearmongering propaganda). Nothing major will happen even if the world loses Taiwan Chip Fabs. Only the USA will make more huge profits because it has local chip manufacturers/foundries like Intel, TSMC, Honeywell, Odyssey Semiconductor, Global Foundry, Tower Semiconductor, Skywater foundry, BAE System, Polar Semiconductor, Lansdale, LA semiconductor, and many other IDMs. The crisis will create demand, They'll work 24x7 to fulfill the market demand at higher prices. maybe x3 or x5 times the normal market price, increasing the price of consumer electronic goods that may decline sales of electronic goods. Also, will cut the competition by sanctioning the major Chinese semiconductor companies. Leaving only Samsung and a few Japanese players in the market. The conclusion is US will keep making profits and gains, from the crises anywhere on Earth. 🤑
You don’t seem to understand the proportion of chips that Taiwan makes for the world these days.
In terms of replacement capacity… there’s not any. You don’t simply flip a switch and start producing other chips on your fab line, let alone scale shit out 5-10x like that on the drop of a hat. It’s not 3D printing. If Taiwan is invaded and they’re forced to destroy their chip industry, there will be an enormous supply shortfall for several YEARS at least, even in the best possible case.
Would definitely hurt Wintel though.
I know the Taiwanese semiconductor chip market and I also understand the capacity/volume of share in the global supply chain. You're the one ignorant of the political game behind it. You're only spotlighting one factor (economic downfall) of what the US government wants you to see. seeding narrative of fear. while disregarding everything else. because it doesn't fit your narrative. My point is The world doesn't end with semiconductor chips or technology. It merely plays a part in the human ingenuity. USA is already working on expanding its fabs. triple the current size in the next 10 years. DO you still think the economy is crashing, the world is ending? Don't imagine stuff like you're living in a fallout. Human beings have survived 1000s of years. Will survive 1000s more. So try to see a bigger picture. US government is trying to make an opportunity out of Taiwan, selling weapons to everyone. later when Taiwan become a ruin. US government will come to rob the graves of Taiwan for whatever left of it. Like it did to Germany and Japan at the end of WW2.
I feel like you’re not reading what I wrote. Maybe making it bigger will help:
What you’re saying indicates that you don’t understand the extremely nuanced and industry specific constraints around integrated circuit manufacturing at scale.
The fact that you’re sticking to your guns so hard here tells me that you’re deep into Dunning-Kruger territory.
Please Make it BIGGER 🔎
my bad! I must have missed the fine print on the PhD in integrated circuit manufacturing. Thanks for the tip, I’ll be sure to bring my magnifying glass next time.
Certainly not a PhD in reading comprehension.
Good one. 👍😂