this post was submitted on 22 May 2024
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That's how it currently is, but I'd be astounded if it didn't progress quickly from now.
OpenAI themselves have made it very clear that scaling up their models have diminishing returns and that they're incapable of moving forward without entirely new models being invented by humans. A short while ago they proclaimed that they could possibly make an AGI if they got several Trillions of USD in investment.
5 years ago I don't think most people thought ChatGPT was possible, or StableDiffusion/MidJourney/etc.
We're in an era of insane technological advancement, and I don't think it'll slow down.
Okay but the people who made the advancements are telling you it has already slowed down. Why don't you understand that? A flawed Chatbot and some art theft machines who can't draw hands aren't exactly worldchanging, either, tbh.
There are other people in the world. Some of them are inventing completely new ways of doing things, and one of those ways could lead to a major breakthrough. I'm not saying a GPT LLM is going to solve the problem, I'm saying AI will.
No, they're not. All the money is now on the LLM autocomplete chatbots.
Real progress on AI won't resume until after the LLM bubble has burst. (And even then investors will probably be wary of putting money in AI for probably a few decades, because LLMs are being marked as AI despite having little to do with it.)
It's quite depressing, really.
Who was making this "real progress on AI" that you mention? Why did they stop that when an LLM became popular?
This is such a rich-country-centric view that I can't stand. LLMs have already given the world maybe it's greatest gift ever -- access to a teacher.
Think of the 800 million poor children in the world and their access to a Kahn academy level teacher on any subject imaginable with a cellphone/computer as all they need. How could that not have value and is pearl clutching drawing skills becoming devalued really all you can think about it?
Anything you learn from an LLM has a margin of error that makes it dangerous and harmful. It hallucinates documentation and fake facts like an asylum inmate. And it's so expensive compared to just having real teachers that it's all pointless. We've got humans, we don't need more humans, adding labor doesn't solve the problem with education.
bro I was taught in a textbook in the US in the 00s that the statue of liberty was painted green.
No math teacher I ever had actually knew the level of math they were teaching.
Humans hallucinate all the time. almost 1 billion children don't even have access to a human teacher, thus the boon to humanity
Those textbooks and the people who regurgitate their contents are the training data for the LLM. Any statement you make about human incompetence is multiplied by an LLM. If they don't have access to a human teacher then they probably don't have PCs and AI subscriptions, either.
yeah but whatever the stats about as N increases alpha/beta error goes away thing is
i would be extremely surprised if before 2100 we see AI that has no human operator and no data scientist team even at a 3rd party distributor - and those things are neither a lie, nor a weaselly marketing stunt ("technically the operators are contractors and not employed by the company" etc).
We invented the printing press 584 years ago, it still requires a team of human operators.
A printing press is not a technology with intelligence. It's like saying we still have to manually operate knives... of course we do.
the comment I originally replied to claimed AI will design the autonomous machines.
It will not. It will facilitate some of the research done by humans to aid in the designing of willfully human operated machinery.
To my knowledge the only autonomous machine that exists is a roomba, which moves blindly around until it physically strikes an object, rotates a random degree and continues in a new direction until it hits something else.
Even then, it is controlled with an app and on more expensive models, some boundary setting.
It is extremely generous to call that "autonomy."
I was in a self-driving taxi yesterday. It didn't need to bump into things to figure out where it was.
Fair, I thought they all got recalled but I guess they're back. but I'd also counter that Waymo is extremely limited about where it can operate - roughly 10 miles max - which, relevant to my original point was entirely hand-mapped and calibrated by human operators, and the rides are monitored and directed by a control center responding in real-time to the car's feedback.
Like my printing press example - it still takes a large human team to operate the "self" - driving car.