this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2024
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There is a race to crack the most common encryption algorithms. The official estimation is that they are 30 years away from it (reduced from the original 100 years they provided only 5 years ago), so their progress is faster that they expected and this tech is now considered a weapon.
The country that gets there first will have a very valuable window of opportunity... It's a race.
Anything that's "30 years away" is essentially not going to happen. Quantum cryptography will advance faster than the ability to break it because there will be more money behind it.
That's not really the concern, quantum cryptography already works, we have more robust encryption techniques.
The problem is that the planet has a whole lot of saved communications still encrypted with old techniques, and those are all at risk of being decrypted later. If you were transmitting encrypted data, knowing that there's was a man in the middle, you probably felt pretty clever, as even the watchers couldn't read it... But they could record it and save it. Now all those saved recordings are likely to come out.
The good news is, a lot of old secrets won't really matter anymore by the time we have quantum computers that can break the encryption. There will obviously be a big impact on information that was encrypted just before we get a working quantum computer that can crack modern crypto.
In cryptography discussions, I feel like we're usually implying (or even saying out loud) that the encryption is secure for a sufficient amount of time and computer power. Perhaps people outside of cryptography don't know it, but I think there is a reasonable expectation that encrypted communications could be decrypted at some point in the future. We just hope it's sufficiently far enough away (or difficult enough) to not be a problem.
Honestly as soon as we get some good post-quantum crypto, we'll probably want to switch over to it asap, even if good quantum computers are still far out, just to help alleviate some of this problem. Of course, I imagine we're still going to be finding new things once the technology is real and being used. Let's hope the post-quantum cryptography algorithms we come up with actually are strong against a sufficiently large quantum computer.
TLS already has quantum-hardened algorithms in it.
Theres already a ton of datasets that have been stolen that won't benefit from new encryption standards. Steal now, decrypt later.