Technology

I see "gold rush" the company selling shovels is making out like a bandit, everyone else is make a profit on the previous gen but requires a 10x cost increase for the next gen. And thus 10x more shovels.. As soon as 10x more shovels stops giving 10x+ improvements this is the wrong investment.

Hints are we already reached this point.

Some AI companies will pivot and improve in other ways with more linear costs/results.. The ones hoping the line continues to the moon.. I think they overshot.. I just don't know when it will fall back..

If not for the banks investing hevily into it, i'd not be all that worried.

Every company in that list could shrink by half and we'd all be at worst back to covid times. Sure unemployment would suck, but do we REALLY need microsoft and NVidia to be as huge as they are?

There is definitely a bubble. But also what Nvidia is doing is smart. They have boatloads of cash. They are investing that cash in the companies that are using their products to create money making services. If one of them can create a killer app or viable service this will create demand for their products and they will have an ownership stake in it. Is this guaranteed or even likely? Probably not. We have reached the point where we were in 1996 where the chairman of the fed came out and said we are in a period of "irrational exuberance." That bubble took four more years to pop. This one may end quicker, but it is impossible to tell when it will end or what will come out of it from where we sit today.

The funny thing about people who say it’s not a bubble because AI has value is that the asset category having value doesn’t prevent valuation bubbles from forming.

Houses have value: you can live in them. Yet there was a housing bubble.

The internet has value: you can watch cat videos on it. Yet there was a dot com bubble.

Tulip bulbs have value: you can grow pretty flowers with them. Yet there was a tulip bulb bubble.

In my experience, whenever you start reading news stories asking if something is a bubble and quoting investment bankers say, “no, it’s not a bubble,” well, usually it’s a bubble.

All ai companies should direct all resources to medical research. I mean we would have to do without ai slop summaries for search engines and ai slop images. Well on second thought I guess slop is worth the human cost so let's keep it as it is. I bet I get my wish.

Hold up everyone. It's not a bubble.

"So it is true that valuations are high but, in our view, generally not at levels that are as high as are typically seen at the height of a financial bubble," said Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer.

He's from GOLDMAN SACHS LOLOLOLO I THINK THEY WOULD RECOGNIZE A BUBBLE LOL ah fuck me our economy is gonna splode

The housing bubble encompassed a metric ton of banks and companies that bought and sold shares of subprime mortgages in the billions of dollars and when everyone stopped paying and started defaulting, that caused a entire economic collapse.

Now unless someone can point me to an analysis where we have some tangible proof that banks and tons of companies are invested, not just using, AI, it seems to me the fall out would be limited to tech companies, which yeah would involve some job losses but nothing on the scale of the housing or dotcom bubble.

Now if you're referring to rich jackasses who are all in and banking on AI taking our jerbs? Sure that bubble will hurt them but they're not driving forces in the economy, just politics, which I guess could cause a economic crash if they get your idiot politicians more scared of them than the people with France on their minds.