sp3ctr4l

Oh I agree, I just cant help but to be stunned and bewildered.

What is this goddamned clownworld timeline we live in where David fucking Brooks is calling for a mass revolt, a literal insurrection, against the pinnacle, ultimate form of what he and his ilk have advocated for and done their level best to make a reality for longer than I've been alive?

I mean... at this point, fuck it, this is good news, we are gonna need as many bodies in the streets and feet on the ground, from as many backgrounds and persuasions of all kinds to have any chance at all of stopping this madness...

But Jesus Christ if this isn't the most 'Dog finally catches car and is disappointed' fucking thing.

As someone with an actual Econ degree:

... Yeah, a whole lot of 'technical signals' aka, chart reading that a lot of 'retail' (ie, amateur) day traders use... is basically astrology.

Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit... like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward... definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now... but as far as the "power" of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?

No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong... there are just way too many other confounding variables.

...

Even the quants who work for hedge funds... who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects....

...well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.

Part of this is because... if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains... is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants... the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.

Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy... well now it doesn't return outsized gains anymore.

... Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.

...

Now, all that being said... one arguably 'technical indicator' that always has been correct in the last 100 years... is when the bond yield curve inverts... the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion... soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.

Except for right now, the last few years.

We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions... and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.

But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as 'investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency'... which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down... which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive... and our exports won't be worth as much... and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous...

And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical 'products'.

(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)

So... yeah you can't really make a day trading strategy out of that.

...

Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.

Also a surprisingly advanced and customizable... 'class' system, which was really more like a whole bunch of branching skill trees you could mix and match basically various ranks of... allowing many weird, but often effective, hyrbrids of 'classes' that... could either focus on one main 'class', but augment it with certain abilities from other 'classes'...

And then the Combat Upgrade happened, and everything got streamlined.

Also... being a Jedi/Sith used to be... exceptionally rare and difficult to pull off.

IIRC, basically, some kind of insane random seed type thing gave each of your characters a very, very tiny chance of being force sensitive... but you wouldn't even know this unless you also found basically a hidden event/questline, and then that would unlock a whole set of force skill trees, allowing for a range of jedi to sith abilities, with some kind of mix effectively being a 'gray' jedi.

Finally... SWG ... still appears to me to be the only MMO that actually attempted to implement a working, player vs player, bounty hunting and tracking system, within an mmo... as a core game mechanic of a player 'class'.

Though I haven't played all mmos, so I may be wrong about that.

... Also an entire skill tree for basically being a mayor and running your own player built town. A whole skill tree dedicated to like... administrative capacity and zoning laws.

Do MMOs even... do player built cities anymore? Or did they just mostly switch over to 'you have a house in the set aside 'suburb' instance'?

Yes but you also just said 'Not true' when I said 'migating an account to another PDS would complicated.'

I do grant that I ... could be interpereted to have overstated the ability of an ActPub user to migrate instsnces... though I did just say 'it would be complicated'.

It is arguably complicated, so complicated it is impossible.

And I did try to make it clear that getting into that level of features/capabilities of ActPub, I was not sure, and that perhaps a lemmy mod or admin could clarify.

I am not saying you said this, but the whole problem here is that a lot of BlueSky users and fans consistently keep acting like BlueSky has all these different kinds of capabilities and features now, working currently...

... when at best, they are planned future features, and at worst, they are an intentionally misleading early access video game style roadmap, with a bunch of super enthusiastic but low technical knowledge early adopters who basically are just enthralled by buzzwords and hope... and those fanboys/girls will just be strung along by promises the devs don't actually plan on ever implementing, because they don't actually have much incentive to... and then years later the early users will either realize they've been duped, or become delusional, hardcore uberfans, bereft of logic and perspective.

I don't even know if such a community exists, or what instance(s) it would be on if it/they do exist... but uh... if one does somewhere, I guess you could submit it?

I am assuming it would follow the basic rule of ... you can't submit your own posts/comments lol.

It is very, very clear, reading your other comments that you are incapable of grasping the concept of a decentralized or distributed network paradigm.

Maybe go look at how torrents work, how I2P works, how a MeshNet works.

Other metaphors would be a guerilla warfare network of cells vs a top down conventional hierarchy where individual units are allowed a degree of autonomy within certain bounds.

The AT Protocol system is not capable of operating in a non centralized manner.

Your only option is to point your PDS at either the official network of Relays... or set up your own system of Relays, and point your PDS at that.

Likewise for an AppView, you can either point yours to sync with the official network of Relays... or another network of Relays.

There is no meshing, where nodes on the mesh control what other nodes they interface with.... there is only branching or forking, setting up an entirely parellel structure, that is not capable of synchronizing with the original.

Beyond that, you still have not addressed that you said a blatantly self contradicting statement; that people self host relays, but also they don't self host relays because that is costly and the self hosted relay code available to the public is experimental and mainly used for reasons tangential to the core function of a production ready relay.

And for the I think third time I have asked this, not of you personally, but in this thread:

Who is hosting a Relay other than BlueSky?

Can you provide evidence any independent person has figured out how to do this and is actually doing it?

I would gladly accept new information and adjust my own understanding accordingly, but all I have seen in this thread so far is multiple people claiming that there are self hosted Relays, and then either providing no evidencd, or showing that they don't understand the subject and post a link to a guide to, or example of, somehow setting up an AppView or PDS.

I mean...

⚠️ Warning ⚠️ ️

Account migration is a potentially destructive operation. Part of the operation involves signing away your old PDS's ability to make updates to your DID. If something goes wrong, you could be permanently locked out of your account, and Bluesky will not be able to help you recover it.

Therefore, we do not recommend migrating your primary account yet. And we specifically recommend against migrating your main account if you do not understand how PLC operations work.

Also, the Bluesky PDS is not currently accepting incoming migrations (it will in the future). Therefore this is currently a one-way street. If you migrate off of bsky.social, you will not be able to return. However, you will be able to migrate between other PDSs.

This is literally the first thing you see on the page you just linked.

And it was last updated 7 months ago.

So I think you mean to say that account migration in BlueSky is currently in development, and is problematic and essentially experimental, and maybe sometime in the future this will change but also maybe not, who knows.

You are right though that is not possible in ActivityPub.

Thank you! I hope your day is pleasant as well =D

Ok, noted, you are a fanatic who does not understand that the statement of yours I replied to literally is a logically impossible paradox.

Take a few deep breaths and ... maybe try to reformulate your words.

All that has to happen for a 'Blackwall' analagous scenario is enough undersea cables get cut/sabotaged.

Then you're looking at a much more localized internet, where actually having a reliable or high bandwidth connection to a very far away place requires you to either have an insane jerry rigged solution, or a lot of money to pay for an increasing valuable, still existing intercontinental line.

Of course, we very much could also end up with a more intentionally constructed type of widespread firewalling as well... they already exist.

China's great firewall, tons of other countries that have internet and/or social media killswitches...

... And we are already seeing massive bandwidth from corpo AI scrapers trying to harvest data to train their AIs leading to people making new ways to detect, block, and or trap them in infinite loops, to save their own servers from going down.

... As soon as you find documents from the founding fathers addressing best practices and policies regarding cybersecurity, let me know.