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Memory Makers Expect Shortages to End in Late 2028, Could Pause Expansion Plans
(www.techpowerup.com)
this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2026
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Maybe. I mean at least a major part of it is that AI pays a lot more money than the consumer does, and even if the consumer market pulls back, they are banking on the raised prices to stay around even if they can increase capacity.
I think what scares them is that CXMT is rapidly catching up to the state of the art. If they dick around for too long, they run the real risk that China and CXMT will do what China does and sweep the market with really cheap memory they can't compete with.
These companies still care about non-ai servers, and that's a big part of the market that could be obliterate pretty quickly.
Given CXMT doesn't just up their prices after gaining market share too. Also China can just ban the export, or tariff it.
They might eventually, but certainly not immediately. In the process they are going to force the other big players to lower their prices to compete.
I don't think China has ever banned an export. It's pretty rare to tariff an export, basically only happens when it's a limited good that the government wants to ensure a local supply of. I think the only country I've heard of doing that is Greenland due to some british wankery.
CXMT (or whoever is sticking the memory onto PCBs) already have increased the prices.
Just like AMD, there's no reason to actually compete on price when you can offer close enough for 10% less.
Technically speaking, Tariffs only exist on imports. Export taxes are an entirely separate category of tax. You are correct though, the logical thing for China to do is to run at a state-subsidized loss with CXMT until everyone else has left the market before raising prices. You know, basically pulling a Walmart with state help.