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Memory Makers Expect Shortages to End in Late 2028, Could Pause Expansion Plans
(www.techpowerup.com)
this post was submitted on 17 Mar 2026
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Given CXMT doesn't just up their prices after gaining market share too. Also China can just ban the export, or tariff it.
They might eventually, but certainly not immediately. In the process they are going to force the other big players to lower their prices to compete.
I don't think China has ever banned an export. It's pretty rare to tariff an export, basically only happens when it's a limited good that the government wants to ensure a local supply of. I think the only country I've heard of doing that is Greenland due to some british wankery.
CXMT (or whoever is sticking the memory onto PCBs) already have increased the prices.
Just like AMD, there's no reason to actually compete on price when you can offer close enough for 10% less.
Technically speaking, Tariffs only exist on imports. Export taxes are an entirely separate category of tax. You are correct though, the logical thing for China to do is to run at a state-subsidized loss with CXMT until everyone else has left the market before raising prices. You know, basically pulling a Walmart with state help.