this post was submitted on 04 Aug 2024
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IMO, you shouldn't be investing in cryptocurrencies or any currencies for that matter. Currencies should be used, not hoarded with the expectation of gain. If you're buying cryptocurrencies as an investment, you've already lost.
Where cryptocurrencies have value is as a medium of exchange. In many parts of the world, the central bank isn't trustworthy and end up causing runaway inflation, such as in Venezuela, Argentina, and Turkey. This is because there is a lot of political gains to be had by manipulating the currency to make things appear better than they are. The US hasn't had this issue largely because the Federal Reserve is largely immune to politics (they're appointed by the executive and confirmed by the Senate, but that's about it). But that's not guaranteed to always be the case. Board members can be removed, and the President and Senate can theoretically pack the Federal Reserve board in the same way as packing the Supreme Court.
The great thing about cryptocurrencies is that you don't need to trust anyone to use it. Here are the parties involved in a transaction:
Each of those has checks in place. You and the other party don't need to exchange secrets, only information that is totally acceptable to be shared (pub keys, not private keys). With something like Monero, you can even make a separate key for each transaction if you'd like. Miners compete against each other to validate transactions accurately, and if a miner tries to cheat, their results are excluded. Source code maintainers work in the open, so researchers (or you!) can and do look at the code.
With fiat, you have to trust the central bank and banking regulators. If you don't trust your central bank, you're SOL.
The cost of using a cryptocurrency vs a central bank is that lack of central oversight, meaning you'll see more variation in valuations. However, this should smooth out as more people use it as a currency (so more even inflows vs outflows). There isn't something like the US dollar or Euro's target 2% inflation rate, so we could see deflation instead of inflation if cryptocurrencies catch on or if people flee to it from investments in a bear market or something.
The value of a cryptocurrency is the demand for that currency. Just like fiat, it has value if we believe it has value. Fiat currencies aren't based on anything more than supply and demand for that currency, just like crytocurrencies, with the big distinction that valuations also take into account trust in the backing back (whereas cryptocurrencies include trust in the network and code).
I don't think anyone needs to exchange cryptocurrencies for "something of value" for the investment to work, they just have to believe the currency itself holds value, where value is defined by supply vs demand. If enough people think others will believe it has value, then demand will increase. It's basically how MLMs work, but it can sustain itself once it reaches a sufficient number of investors.
Adding transactions for real goods and services in the mix expands the reach of the currency and can stabilize demand a bit once the initial speculators have lost interest. So yeah, there's absolutely a motivation for speculators to try to get others on-board. But it's not necessarily a requirement, as we can see with other collector fads like Beanie Babies or Baseball Cards (the only value is in trading with other collectors), but just changed to be digital (NFTs are the strongest analogue).
However, just because speculators are rewarded if you use a cryptocurrency for transactions doesn't mean you should avoid it. Use it if it provides value to you. The value proposition is:
Even without any kind of physical backing, cryptocurrencies offer an attractive value proposition. We could probably solve the above with fiat, but that currently is not a thing. I don't recommend using cryptocurrencies for everything, nor do I recommend using it as an investment, but I do recommend using it for a few transactions here and there until you feel comfortable with it because of that value proposition.
Maybe? It reads like you're arguing that you shouldn't buy cryptocurrencies at all if you don't understand how transactions are handled. I don't think that's true, and that will just discourage the normal, everyday person from getting started. You may need that info if you're interested in investment/trading, but you don't really need to get into the weeds if you just want to pay for some online services.
The important thing for lay-people is to recognize the value cryptocurrencies can provide, understand which cryptocurrencies are "stable" (as in, not some altcoin scam), and understand transaction times and costs. That's honestly it. If we can achieve that, more people will start using cryptocurrencies for transactions where it's available, more vendors will see it as a viable payment source, liquidity will improve, and developers will address the issues as they come up.
If you're buying something other than the top few cryptocurrencies, then yes, I agree with you. But you're not going to do that if your goal is to use it as a currency, because no real vendors are going to accept whatever that new altcoin is. If you stick with the big coins and your goal is to spend those coins, you're not likely to get screwed. Bitcoin can work w/ Lightning, and Monero (my preference) is great on its own. Those are also the two that are most commonly accepted by vendors.
Maybe we agree there, idk. I think your comments read a little gatekeepy and from a "cryptocurrencies are investments" standpoint, and I think the focus should be "cryptocurrencies are currencies."
That's fair. The Lightning network really is an interesting solution to the problem Bitcoin had, and I'm interested to find out if/when Monero will run into a similar problem.