this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2025
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The whole exponential improvement hypothesis assumes that the marginal cost of each improvement stays the same. Which is a huge assumption.
Maybe so, but we already have an example of a generally intelligent system that outperforms our current AI models in its cognitive capabilities while using orders of magnitude less power and memory: the human brain. That alone suggests our current brute‑force approach probably won’t be the path a true AGI takes. It’s entirely conceivable that such a system improves through optimization - getting better while using less power, at least in the beginning.